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Cake day: June 9th, 2023

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  • Temporary until new energy comes online.

    That is my point. The new energy does not need to be fossil fuels. We had similar oil prices in the early 2010s for years. That was without any major supply disruption. Since then inflation has been pretty high, so in real terms the oil prices back then were actually worse. We therefore very clearly have demand destruction not due to the oil price being too high, but demand destruction. That is without a major financial crisis or virus.


  • No it can and it likely does to an extend right now. So far we had three events, which actually lowered oil consumption. One was the 2008 financial crisis and one was Covid. The third was the last time the Strait of Hormuz had serious issues, namely the Iran-Iraq War. That actually lowered oil consumption by enough to lower global primary energy consumption. That obviously picked up after that again, but today we actually have EVs, wind, solar, heat pumps and so forth. We also see attacks against Russia fossil fuel infrastructure. Also the global population grew a lot faster after 1979 then it does today.















  • This is a different sort of counting then the Ukrainian numbers posted here sometimes. Meduza only counts Russian losses(so no North Korean or other non Russians) and more importantly verifies all of them individually from public sources. This takes a long time so some deaths are not recorded for months and also probably means they miss quite a few deaths. As such these figures are the lowest reasonable floor for any realistic guess. The Ukrainian figures are probably the upper bound. At least historically enemy losses were overestimate in past conflicts.

    That being said this also shows a lot of other interesting things. So well worth a read.