cross-posted from: https://lemmy.blahaj.zone/post/17869503
I know I’m going against the grain here, I’m obviously no Harris lover, but also I’d prefer to be allowed to continue existing. If that’s controversial in leftist spaces then maybe I don’t want to spend any more time in leftist spaces.
You would have made a pretty penny if you bet on Trump in 2016
Electoral betting odds more closely reflect the opinions of capital than voters, precisely because of who has more disposable money to put where their mouth is. In 2016, that was the liberal status quo because it meant business as usual. In 2024, after having a taste of blood in the water from tax cuts and deregulation in Trump’s first term, they want more.
My statistics professor did, which is what got me interested in the space. In general, he said, the betting odds are more reflective of reality because the further they are from the truth, the more money to be made by people who can detect that.
So even if the odds are off, the chances of them being off by a significant amount are low.
(And yes, it was unlikely for Trump to win 2016. The fact he did win doesn’t change that fact)