Crimes are generally either irrational or desperate, and neither of those states lend themselves to considering what-ifs that may or may not come to pass.

You mean the crimes people do in societies with punishments? Kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy you have there.

but the belief that increased punishment implies increased compliance comes from a place of ignorance.

Err… no it doesn’t. Look at the amount of theft in places that allow it vs. places that cut off your hands. It’s normal to steal from Walmart, but a sub-saharen African street vendor might be able to get your hands cut off if they catch you stealing from them.

A place of ignorance is ignoring which place has the greater amount of theft, even when considering who is more incentivized to steal. It’s okay. Most people on these forums are disconnected from reality.