I think this is very possibly true, I think most voters wave away accusations of their preferred political candidate but actually believe jury trial results. The subset where that flips their vote is smaller, I believe the 6% that one poll found. But that’s plenty to flip an election, all else equal.
The scary part is that there are other factors. If Trump gets convicted on one or two of the charges and also the economy goes into an unexpected downturn close to the election like in 2008, Trump might get elected anyway and that’s a really bad precedent.
I think this is very possibly true, I think most voters wave away accusations of their preferred political candidate but actually believe jury trial results. The subset where that flips their vote is smaller, I believe the 6% that one poll found. But that’s plenty to flip an election, all else equal.
The scary part is that there are other factors. If Trump gets convicted on one or two of the charges and also the economy goes into an unexpected downturn close to the election like in 2008, Trump might get elected anyway and that’s a really bad precedent.
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Which part? I’m not saying anything particularly confidently but I think this is the most likely scenario.