Four-times-indicted former president Donald Trump has been successfully selling white Christian nostalgia, racism and xenophobia to his base. However, the Public Religion Research Institute’s massive poll of 6,616 participants suggests that what works with his base might pose an insurmountable problem with Gen Z teens and Gen Z adults (who are younger than 25).
Demographically, this cohort of voters bears little resemblance to Trump’s older, whiter, more religious followers. “In addition to being the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in our nation’s history, Gen Z adults also identify as LGBTQ at much higher rates than older Americans,” the PRRI poll found. “Like millennials, Gen Zers are also less likely than older generations to affiliate with an established religion.”
Those characteristics suggest Gen Z will favor a progressive message that incorporates diversity and opposes government imposition of religious views. Indeed, “Gen Z adults (21%) are less likely than all generational groups except millennials (21%) to identify as Republican.” Though 36 percent of Gen Z adults identify as Democrats, their teenage counterparts are more likely to be independents (51 percent) than older generations.
Headline aside, 28% turnout for genz vs 23% for millenials, genx, and boomers in their respective first midterms is not going to swing an election where current boomers turn out 70% and genx turn out 60.
But they did swing the 2022 midterms.
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/analyses/the-2022-midterm-elections-what-the-historical-data-suggest
In 2022 the Democratic party only lost 7 House seats and gained a Senate seat.
Leading into the election polli g and pundits predicted a decisive win for Republicans, and the unprecedented youth the out by Gen Z is credited as being a difference maker in the Democratic party outperforming expectations.
It would be foolish to write off Gen Z in 2024 by attributing to them the preceding generations’ (including mine, I’m Gen X) participation at matching ages.