I don’t think there is wishful thinking here; instead there is a chilling message that after Putin expect chaos. We don’t know when it will be - it could be years more - but fundamentally Russia is divided into vying armed factions, Putin has less control of them, and there is no clear successor and for some factions things are beginning to lean towards the question “are we better without him?” and “will be better off if we move sooner than our rivals rather than wait?”

But we in the west ironically should hope Putin survives as long as possible. Because when he dies, there will be a civil war between armed factions in the army, security services, mercenary armies and other groups. Groups that have a vested interest in some form of the current system continuing but who also cannot let their rivals win.