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Cake day: 31 December 2023

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  • That’s just a pressure tactic. They’re not actually hilding off on talks for years

    From a crisis bargaining perspective, it makes perfect sense to say but little sense to actually do

    Iran doesn’t need to beat the US militarily, it just needs to hold out until Trump loses politically. Saying there will be no talks adds to that pressure. Waiting 3 years leaves too much room for markets to adjust, or the US to find a strategy out of this quagmire

    They’ll deal when Trump is desperate enough to agree to the bulk of their terms

    Edit: Since this will be an unpopular comment without providing some proof

    March 23rd: Trump claims deal is close, Iran denies talks are taking place

    2 days later…

    March 25th: Iran rejects US deal, counters with their own

    Both countries lied here, for different reasons. Trump wanted to assauge the markets, Iran wanted to project the stronger bargaining position

    Saying there are no talks is a negotiating tactic Iran frequently uses, although we don’t need historical precedence to know that’s the case. Any rational actor would still engage in negotiations, and Iran has generally acted rationally in this war. They also like to use indirect negotiations to save face, as they did in my example






  • Taldan@lemmy.worldto196@lemmy.blahaj.zonerule
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    4 days ago

    That statement is technically correct

    Mile per mile, drunk walking and biking is more dangerous than drunk driving for the individual. Obviously why drunk driving is not okay is the danger to others, which is why his wording specifically only mentioned the danger to themselves

    Source


  • Taldan@lemmy.worldto196@lemmy.blahaj.zonerule
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    4 days ago

    You are very bad at communicating. You were correct in your initial comment, but really went off the rails and said many incorrect things afterwards

    Walking and biking is statistically more dangerous, mile per mile, for a drunk person than driving. The caveat is this excludes externalities such as injuring other people

    Had you said that, I think more people would have understood what you meant. As it stands, it sounds like you’re advocating for drunk driving


  • Taldan@lemmy.worldto196@lemmy.blahaj.zonerule
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    4 days ago

    You’re saying a different thing than they did. They said a drunk 14-year-old on a bike is in more danger than a 21-year-old in a car, which is correct

    Drunk pedestrians and cyclists statistically are in more danger than drivers, per mile, by a decent margin

    The problem is that doesn’t account for externalities, namely the risk of injuring others. A pedestrian or cyclist is unlikely to seriously injure someone else, whereas a driver would

    Edit: This is in the US, other countries will have different resukts due to more pedestrian-friendly infrastructure