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Cake day: June 19th, 2023

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  • While this might sound like ruzzia can continue like this 50 times longer, the reality is quite different. Let’s have a look. https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/unemployment-rate

    Their unemployment rate hit the historic low in September 2023. Yes, they still have 1.8 million unemployed, but since the number stayed the same while there’s a demand for human force, those are actually likely unemployable ones.

    Before the war they had roughly double of that amount of unemployed ones.

    So looks like

    1. They already employed everybody they could
    2. They already sent to war (and lost) everyone who wasn’t bringing much value

    Add to that about quarter a million (assuming only 25% are men of that age) of who left (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_emigration_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine)

    So yeah, they only lost 2% of potential soldiers, but it appears that already since a year ago they lost all “spare” men and every single one they scrape now is a) likely not fit for military b) was involved in military economy

    Yes, they can continue like this for a while, but the cost of each new soldier will be bigger and bigger, the quality and equipment lower and lower. And the system will snap way before all of them are “expended”. Ukraine says summer next year ( https://www.kyivpost.com/post/39020 ) given all this I tend to believe that forecast.