Following the scandal between US President Trump and Ukraine, Kiev is receiving a lot of solidarity. A different tone is coming from Hungary.
Shortly before a special EU summit, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has announced a blockade of possible new support efforts for Ukraine. In a letter to EU Council President António Costa, which was obtained by Deutsche Presse-Agentur, Orbán wrote that he could not agree to a joint declaration by the EU heads of state and government on Thursday.
Zoltan Kovacs, the state secretary responsible for international government communications in Hungary, confirmed that the letter is authentic.
The threat from Budapest comes after US President Donald Trump threatened to abandon Ukraine in the fight against Russia if an agreement with Russia was not reached. He made serious accusations against Ukrainian head of state Volodymyr Zelensky in front of the cameras at the White House.
##Orbán calls for direct talks with Russia
Orbán went on to write that there are “strategic differences in our approach to Ukraine that cannot be bridged by drafts or communication”. The EU should follow the example of the USA and hold direct talks with Russia on a ceasefire and an agreement in Ukraine.
It is therefore unlikely that the EU will be able to adopt new measures to support Ukraine at the special summit on Thursday. According to the EU’s External Action Service, there should ideally be an agreement in principle on a new EU package with military aid for Ukraine.
##Unanimity is needed for far-reaching decisions
However, far-reaching decisions must be made unanimously in the EU and Hungary had already announced last week that it intended to block the plans.
The initiative of EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas is aimed at strengthening Kiev’s position in the negotiations instead of pushing for peace, Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced via the social network X. Hungary would not support spending European taxpayers’ money to prolong the war.
(Translated using DeepL)
My understanding is that EU sanctions require unanimity. Hungary could put a hole in the bottom of the boat there.
On the other hand, sending troops or funds is not fundamentally an EU activity, does not require unanimity, and could be done by all other EU members even if Hungary objected. Much aid to Ukraine has been provided on a direct country-by-country basis, albeit not all. And I believe that this is the form of involvement that would be required to significantly alter the outcome in Ukraine; additional sanctions would not be sufficient.
However, I am skeptical that there is a political desire in the EU to do this. I think that the strongest statement from Europe that I’ve seen has been from the UK, which has said that it would send a “peacekeeping” force – but only if the US backstops it, which the US has said that it will not. So…that’s not really much of a commitment in practical terms.
I think that end of the day, Ukraine’s fate may have been decided on the battlefield. Russia was willing to outlast Ukraine, and there is no willingness from US and I do not believe I see any from Europe to directly militarily intervene to alter that outcome. Without a commitment of forces to Ukraine, Russia has nothing keeping it from simply rebuilding and then doing another push, taking over Ukraine down the line, or simply imposing its will on Ukraine by using continued threat of hard power; if Ukraine has no hard-power ability to resist, it must conform to the Kremlin’s will.
EDIT: I’d imagine that this also has implications for other post-Soviet states in the neighborhood, like Georgia and Moldova, who are in a similar position. If there is no willingness from the outside to put boots on the ground, and there is willingness from Russia, then one would expect Russia to re-exert control over countries. Sort of a path-of-Belarus, I guess.