I don’t know specifically about 10%, but in general:
More Linux users means more developers porting their software to Linux, and this encourages further migration to Linux, since users would have one less reason to say “I’d like to use Linux, but $software is Windows only”. So I think it’ll snowball.
Microsoft might let it be, given I don’t think it makes a lot of money from home users. But that would be a mistake, because it creates cracks in the walls of its walled garden: the person using Linux at home is the same one bugging their boss “I’d rather use a Linux machine, I’m more used to it than to Windows” in their work. And that might synergise with the political landscape, given Linux is by no means as government-tied as MS is to USA, and… really, anyone should be avoiding USA software, even the folks living in territories controlled by USA. Governments are slower to move but might follow fashion.
Or alternatively Microsoft might fight back. I think it’ll do it through multiple fronts: FUD (“Loonix is vyrus” tier), EEE (embrace, extend, extinguish; hard to do with Linux since it’s a headless beast), political bribing, so goes on. And perhaps even making their system suck less, but there’s a limit it can do it since it needs to show its shareholders “we’re now an agentic OS!” and crap like that.
EEE (embrace, extend, extinguish; hard to do with Linux since it’s a headless beast)
If Microsoft bought Red Hat, they would control a massive chunk of the Linux ecosystem. Even if everyone starts forking or replacing the Red Hat-centered components, it could certainly deal a heavy blow.
A heavy but not a mortal blow. Main damage would be from multiple forks splitting efforts and fighting each other; but that seems unlikely in the face of a clearly hostile move. People in Red Hat for ideological reasons would call it quits, form a non-profit, fork the software, and business goes on as usual.
Plus Microsoft is all about cost vs. benefit. Red Hat was bought by IBM by 34 billion dollars in 2019; by now it should be worth more, and MS would need to give IBM an offer meaningfully above that in order to get IBM to sell it. So let’s say 50 billions? It would be hard to justify to shareholders they need to buy Red Hat.
I don’t know specifically about 10%, but in general:
More Linux users means more developers porting their software to Linux, and this encourages further migration to Linux, since users would have one less reason to say “I’d like to use Linux, but
$softwareis Windows only”. So I think it’ll snowball.Microsoft might let it be, given I don’t think it makes a lot of money from home users. But that would be a mistake, because it creates cracks in the walls of its walled garden: the person using Linux at home is the same one bugging their boss “I’d rather use a Linux machine, I’m more used to it than to Windows” in their work. And that might synergise with the political landscape, given Linux is by no means as government-tied as MS is to USA, and… really, anyone should be avoiding USA software, even the folks living in territories controlled by USA. Governments are slower to move but might follow fashion.
Or alternatively Microsoft might fight back. I think it’ll do it through multiple fronts: FUD (“Loonix is vyrus” tier), EEE (embrace, extend, extinguish; hard to do with Linux since it’s a headless beast), political bribing, so goes on. And perhaps even making their system suck less, but there’s a limit it can do it since it needs to show its shareholders “we’re now an agentic OS!” and crap like that.
If Microsoft bought Red Hat, they would control a massive chunk of the Linux ecosystem. Even if everyone starts forking or replacing the Red Hat-centered components, it could certainly deal a heavy blow.
A heavy but not a mortal blow. Main damage would be from multiple forks splitting efforts and fighting each other; but that seems unlikely in the face of a clearly hostile move. People in Red Hat for ideological reasons would call it quits, form a non-profit, fork the software, and business goes on as usual.
Plus Microsoft is all about cost vs. benefit. Red Hat was bought by IBM by 34 billion dollars in 2019; by now it should be worth more, and MS would need to give IBM an offer meaningfully above that in order to get IBM to sell it. So let’s say 50 billions? It would be hard to justify to shareholders they need to buy Red Hat.