My weekly preamble is in spoiler tags below.
preamble
After an uncertain beginning to this second major period of hostilities, we can now see the overall plan for either side.
For the Americans, their fire has been primarily focussed on southern Iran, where they have been attempting to break Iran’s control of Hormuz by a steady campaign of striking both military and civilian sites. Additionally, it looks like the US is attempting to shape the battlefield around Bandas Abbas and Qeshm Island for some kind of incursion, as we have seen bridges and tunnels in the vicinity struck by missiles. The key word there is “attempting”, because there are several things wrong with this plan both tactically and strategically.
Tactically, Iran has demonstrated the ability to very quickly get their transportation infrastructure repaired, and the US simply isn’t firing volleys in the required amounts - and towards the right targets (they’re using several missiles on purely civilian targets, like fishing boats) - to meaningfully degrade Iranian control of even this sector of the coastline. Additionally, an amphibious assault on Qeshm Island in the style of the WW2 Pacific theater is essentially impossible unless Iran, for whatever reason, allowed it. The gauntlet that any ship holding Marines would have to run to get to the island precludes this, let alone also transporting heavy weaponry and materiel for resupply. Using helicopter-borne troops or paratroopers would be much more feasible, but runs into even greater logistical problems if the US wanted to do anything there other than a brief skirmish before withdrawing. Strategically, even if the US waved a magic wand and took Qeshm Island, it’s unclear what this would do to fulfill war aims. The most obvious intention would be to trade it back to Iran in return for a major Iranian concession, but what if you take the island, you call up Iran saying “Alright, let’s get this deal running! First, I want no Hormuz tolls–” and Iran just… hung up, and kept firing drones and missiles and artillery at your forces on the island until they either all died or were forced to retreat? It’s not a tenable position to hold, and Iran’s capabilities to affect shipping in Hormuz are obviously not all concentrated on one single island.
So, what is Iran’s strategy? It’s what one analyst (Amerikanets) has termed “debasification”. If the first phase of the war from late February to mid-April was focussed primarily on generally destroying and disrupting the US’s military infrastructure in the region, what this second phase has planned is something more like a region-wide missile advance. Starting from the Gulf states and their US bases, the plan is to push back American planes and soldiers to further and further afield bases and thereby make sorties against Iran take much more time, fuel, and use more resupply planes. Iranian strikes are, as of me writing this, concentrated on Jordan, where a recent Iranian strike caused the first admission of soldier deaths in quite some time. The Iranian goal is clearly to push back all US planes to at least the Zionist entity, by which point, unless they are withdrawn further back all the way to Europe, the planes will all be so concentrated on so few bases that it will become a physical impossibility to get them all scrambled before Iranian strikes hit. Compared to the US’s strategy, Iran’s is immediately bearing fruit, with US strikes already very limited in intensity compared to the first phase of the war months ago. The irony of the US breaking off negotiations - again! - to pursue a new strategy that already looks to be profoundly failing is truly some inspired stuff; the genocidal architects of American imperium in the mid-20th century are rolling in their graves.
Last week’s thread is here.
The Imperialism Reading Group is here.
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The RSS feed is here. Also currently not used.
The Zionist Entity's Genocide of Palestine
Sources on the fighting in Palestine against the temporary Zionist entity. In general, CW for footage of battles, explosions, dead people, and so on:
UNRWA reports on the Zionists’ destruction and siege of Gaza and the West Bank.
English-language Palestinian Marxist-Leninist twitter account. Alt here.
English-language twitter account that collates news.
Arab-language twitter account with videos and images of fighting.
English-language (with some Arab retweets) Twitter account based in Lebanon. - Telegram is @IbnRiad.
English-language Palestinian Twitter account which reports on news from the Resistance Axis. - Telegram is @EyesOnSouth.
English-language Twitter account in the same group as the previous two. - Telegram here.
Mirrors of Telegram channels that have been erased by Zionist censorship.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
Examples of Ukrainian Nazis and fascists
Examples of racism/euro-centrism during the Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sources:
Moon of Alabama, which tends to have interesting analysis. Avoid the comment section.
Understanding War and the Saker: reactionary sources that have occasional insights on the war.
Alexander Mercouris, who does daily videos on the conflict. While he is a reactionary and surrounds himself with likeminded people, his daily update videos are relatively brainworm-free and good if you don’t want to follow Russian telegram channels to get news. He also co-hosts The Duran, which is more explicitly conservative, racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-communist, etc when guests are invited on, but is just about tolerable when it’s just the two of them if you want a little more analysis.
Simplicius, who publishes on Substack. Like others, his political analysis should be soundly ignored, but his knowledge of weaponry and military strategy is generally quite good.
On the ground: Patrick Lancaster, an independent and very good journalist reporting in the warzone on the separatists’ side.
Unedited videos of Russian/Ukrainian press conferences and speeches.
Pro-Russian Telegram Channels:
Again, CW for anti-LGBT and racist, sexist, etc speech, as well as combat footage.
https://t.me/aleksandr_skif ~ DPR’s former Defense Minister and Colonel in the DPR’s forces. Russian language.
https://t.me/Slavyangrad ~ A few different pro-Russian people gather frequent content for this channel (~100 posts per day), some socialist, but all socially reactionary. If you can only tolerate using one Russian telegram channel, I would recommend this one.
https://t.me/s/levigodman ~ Does daily update posts.
https://t.me/patricklancasternewstoday ~ Patrick Lancaster’s telegram channel.
https://t.me/gonzowarr ~ A big Russian commentator.
https://t.me/rybar ~ One of, if not the, biggest Russian telegram channels focussing on the war out there. Actually quite balanced, maybe even pessimistic about Russia. Produces interesting and useful maps.
https://t.me/epoddubny ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/boris_rozhin ~ Russian language.
https://t.me/mod_russia_en ~ Russian Ministry of Defense. Does daily, if rather bland updates on the number of Ukrainians killed, etc. The figures appear to be approximately accurate; if you want, reduce all numbers by 25% as a ‘propaganda tax’, if you don’t believe them. Does not cover everything, for obvious reasons, and virtually never details Russian losses.
https://t.me/UkraineHumanRightsAbuses ~ Pro-Russian, documents abuses that Ukraine commits.
Pro-Ukraine Telegram Channels:
Almost every Western media outlet.
https://discord.gg/projectowl ~ Pro-Ukrainian OSINT Discord.
https://t.me/ice_inii ~ Alleged Ukrainian account with a rather cynical take on the entire thing.
The Pentagon removed the names of 4 servicemembers who died in Jordan from their official list of casualties. They explain that this is because “their deaths occurred after President Trump declared a cease-fire in the war in April.”
The 50 per cent rate is being imposed in response to what a senior administration official described as Canada’s retaliation against U.S. trade policy and its discrimination against U.S. motor vehicles, dairy and alcohol. “This is not a trade war with Canada, these are defensive measures,” the official said in a conference call with reporters Monday afternoon. The new rate is set to take effect in 30 days. While energy, potash, critical minerals and fish would be exempt, other products that until now have been allowed into the U.S. tariff-free under terms of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) would be hit.
The 50 per cent tariff is five times higher than the current duty imposed on the small portion of Canada’s exports to the U.S. that don’t comply with CUSMA’s rules of origin regulations. The new rate would apply to a variety of Canadian imports, “ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement,” the official said, adding that the White House will publish a full list of the affected products.
I very much like how they are just blatantly ignoring NAFTA (CUSMA). If Canada wasn’t such a US vassal, they could respond with export tariffs on energy, especially crude oil.
https://xcancel.com/caitoz/status/2079571051705766360
Finance Minister Smotrich after the lengthy security discussion last night: “The State of Israel has no interest in joining the contained confrontation between Iran and the United States — the current situation is the best one for us.”
https://xcancel.com/CIVIC_ACTUAL/status/2079623849755176994
Couple missiles hit Jordan, and suddenly Haaretz is all “We cannot sacrifice Israeli children to America’s reckless wars. Israel is not America’s puppet! The good people of Israel have no quarrel with the noble people of Iran nor her brave missileers”
“missileer” is a cool new word to add to my dictionary, there should be more <noun>-eer words for “person who does/uses <noun>”, musketeer, mountaineer, charioteer, carabineer, they’re all great words! anyone remember The Rocketeer?
全国最后一位长征女红军王全英在医院与世长辞，享年105岁，她14岁时加入红军踏上万里长征路，严寒中和战友吃野草充饥，被冻掉脚趾
On 22 July, the last living female member Red Army to make the Long March, Wang Quanying, passed away in hospital. She was 105 years old. She joined the Red Army at the the age of 14 to set off on the Long March, enduring extreme cold and starvation alongside her comrades, even losing toes to frostbite
Excerpt from 潮新闻 Chao News, WeChat, secondary news article below
https://view.inews.qq.com/k/20260723A07N8700?scene=wap&no-redirect=1
BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC says it has completely destroyed Amazon’s central data hub in Bahrain with several cruise missiles and warns more are coming, per Fars News.
If you are a tanker waiting in line to be hit by a drone or a mine, stay in line.
Three oil tankers, encouraged and enticed by the child-killing U.S. military, attempted to pass through the mined route south of the Strait of Hormuz. After an explosion and a severe fire broke out on one of them, the other two quickly turned around and retreated.
God Damn al Jazeera.
Gaza24Live reports
#BREAKING | Al Jazeera terminates the services of its journalist correspondent Muhammad Shaheen, the sole surviving reporter from its team in northern Gaza, after two years of continuous war coverage, during which he accompanied his martyred colleagues Anas al-Sharif, Muhammad Qreiqea, Ismail al-Ghoul, and Hussam Shabat.
Yahya Basheer in Gaza writes
To clarify the picture even more for followers around the world regarding the situation in Gaza and Palestine…
Al Jazeera, the channel that “rode the trend” and gained the “exclusive footage.”
For months now, it has been terminating employment contracts with journalists and media activists who worked under bombardment in Gaza for two and a half years!
Today, Al Jazeera is turning its attention to other, more important issues, as we follow and see!
In their view, Gaza is no longer a trend, and there’s no point in caring about the shelling here and the assassinations and massacres there…
More money for war and genocide
🇺🇸 The House has passed the $1.1 trillion National Defense Authorization Act 216–212, with six Democrats voting yes and seven Republicans voting no. It incudes section 219 which integrates U.S. military intelligence and the defense industrial base with Israel.
The bill makes US military support for Israel easier and more institutionalized. It creates a Pentagon official tasked with accelerating U.S.-Israel military technology cooperation, including joint R&D, testing, co-production, data sharing, and moving jointly developed technology into procurement.
Separately, it extends through 2029 an existing authority allowing the U.S. to transfer weapons already stored in its War Reserve Stockpile in Israel. That authority can permit transfers without Congress voting on each shipment, with Congress only receiving notification under the underlying law.
Tesla swapped a solar owner’s lease contract for the Book of Enoch
A Tesla solar customer went to pull up their lease agreement in their Tesla account this month and found something other than a contract waiting for them: the Book of Enoch, an ancient apocalyptic text about fallen angels.
Not a scanned copy of their agreement. Not an error page. The full text of a roughly 2,000-year-old religious book, sitting exactly where their legally binding solar lease was supposed to be. Electrek confirmed it.
The owner, who asked to stay anonymous, needed to check the document, which dictates the terms of a decade-long lease, but it had been quietly replaced by scripture.
When they contacted Tesla support, a representative acknowledged the swap in a chat conversation Electrek reviewed. Tesla confirmed the lease had become the Book of Enoch.
Allowing companies to self-certify stuff (like Tesla does with car safety) and also to host legal documents on their servers (that they can change at any time) are two just beautiful innovations.
After “Political Terrorism” Event, U.S. Names 43 Americans + Groups
The implication is clear: Secretary of State Marco Rubio thinks there should be a modern-day blacklist of the political left in America. In fact, the report explicitly mentions the “blacklists, McCarthy-era investigations and prosecutions” of the 1950s and their effectiveness at dismembering the Communist Party USA.
Amy Goodman, Code Pink, the DSA, Mamdani, Amazon Labour Union, and many more.
The PSL is notably absent although they did list Claudia.PSL definitely in there as well.https://xcancel.com/HormuzLetter/status/2081159589819490641
BREAKING: Trump has cancelled plans to sharply escalate the war on Iran over concerns that Iranian attacks could dangerously drain the Pentagon’s already diminished stockpile of Patriot antimissile interceptors and other air defense munitions in the Middle East close to zero, per NYT.
The Pentagon has used more than 1,200 Patriot interceptors in the war at more than $4M each, with cheap Iranian drones and ballistic missiles depleting the US inventory. Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Dan Caine privately cautioned that resuming major combat operations would fully deplete interceptors available to US Central Command.
A senior US official adds that continued strikes have had “the opposite effect of what is intended, keeping Iran cohesive and allowing Iranian leaders to focus attention on an external threat.”
Intel Hexbear - Lots of RAF activity tonight out of Lossiemouth: warplanes, tankers, one Atlas transport flying south low with no active transponders.
Edit: Took Kid Starvers replacement less than 24 hours in office to permit the US operations out of UK bases.
❗️Major General Ali Abdollahi, Commander of Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters:
“We have a rule that we have previously proven to the enemy is operational, and from this moment, it is a definitive and communicated equation on the battlefield: For every proud Iranian citizen martyred, one American will meet its demise. We have prepared free and direct tickets to hell for you.”
We’re calling our missile shield “we have a fatal weakness”. Anyway, it is terrible how fully captured by EU/Israeli interests Greece became after the whole “bailout” situation. This is probably just free money for Israel, I doubt that Greece will even receive much (if any) weapons.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announces that the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck a Russian military cargo vessel bound for Iran, A gentle reminder to Mr. Zelenskyy: All of Ukraine is within reach of Iran’s ballistic missiles, including super-heavy Khorramshahr-4. Although it would be a waste of good missiles.
- Middle East Spectator
