Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.
Its a problem with the techniques they’re using to gather data I guess. Whether it’s the cold calling or what, I don’t know, but it clearly isn’t effective to get honest assessments anymore.
That being said it will never not blow my mind that it’s even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don’t need to be right, you just have to feel like you’re right.
I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn’t help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that’s not helping his case, although they’re short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.
If Trump wins our democracy is over. ‘Oh you’re overreacting’. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you’re anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.
I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn’t happen.
No I don’t think that’s accurate. If McCain or Romney had won I never had a fear that our democracy would have eroded. I certainly wouldn’t have agreed with all of their policy choices but both men I think are old guard politicians and would have largely done the job with an undercurrent of honor that just doesn’t exist with trump. I never would have had any fear that if they lost the next election they wouldn’t peacefully turn over power.
With trump all of that has changed. The only reason his coup didn’t work is because most everyone involved was dense as fuck and couldn’t come up with a cohesive strategy to get it done. Give him another chance and 4 years to prepare and he will find success.
Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he’s the candidate we’ve got, and in our broken political system that’s as good as it’s going to get. We can talk about 3rd parties and changing the system but none of that is happening before 24.
The polls are right about one thing. Trump definitely could win again. That should be very alarming to any rational American.
I’m voting for Biden. He’s unpopular and the party’s messaging is dogshit, but I’m voting for him. You’re fooling yourself if you think our current messaging is going to bring in all the votes we need.
If the party expects us to believe that there will totally be discussion about what the party’s left wants this time, maybe there should have been some discussion the last three times they said that.
Basically my take. My view is that we need the old guard centrists to die off and we need to see more millenials and Gen z step into political positions.
It is of course a double edged sword. If you reformed the democratic party to actually adhere to current popular liberal progressive policies you would see a lot more shit getting done. But the millenials and Gen z Republicans are all cartoonishly evil and we are eventually going to have only maga qanon uneducated conspiratards making up the other political party.
The left has to win every election from here to the end of time. The loonies only need to win one more.
There is also a total failure to understand that as much as the online community is solidly to the left of democrats, the policies don’t play as well to middle America. I believe in gun regulation, but if a candidate’s platform goes too hard on that they will lose MI and PA for sure. UBI? You better believe that’s a loser. Doesn’t matter how good the policy is, the messaging terrifies people.
I fucking love Bernie. That is a dude with integrity and heart. I wish he’d been elected. But he would’ve lost the general election (except maybe 2016 - I suspect only Hillary could’ve lost to Trump, but in hindsight it’s easy to say maybe we shouldn’t have taken the losing path). Candidates you love but can’t win aren’t going to help anyone. Biden has proven himself against Trump and no one else has. I’m damn sure happy he’s running.
There is also a total failure to understand that as much as the online community is solidly to the left of democrats, the policies don’t play as well to middle America.
Four decades of moving to the right to (ostensibly) please centrists’ notion of middle America, and your poll numbers are dropping against a literal fascist. You need the votes of the left that party leadership hates. We’re already funding genocide. How much farther do the right do you suppose we can move?
Fine. Four decades of moving to the right to (ostensibly) please centrists’ notion of middle America, and Democrats’ poll numbers are dropping against a literal fascist. Democrats need the votes of the left that party leadership hates. We’re already funding genocide. How much farther do the right do you suppose we can move?
Now can you try addressing this instead of trying to divert?
Biden has been the most progressive President in probably 40 years and the most effective since probably Clinton. He wouldn’t be my first choice, but even if your silly little one-word retort is true that’s a big improvement on the past.
Obama also murdered people with drones and caved to Republicans when he had the power to pursue a more progressive agenda. He bailed out businesses instead of people. He did nothing about torturing prisoners of war. Don’t give me this Obama progressive bullshit. ACA was a republican plan. Obama was not by any stretch of the imagination a progressive. He was an okay President and a great orator, but his policies were conservative democrat.
Well you’re just wrong. Obama was not as progressive as Biden and believe me I was shocked by both. The proof is in the policies.
Oh and being an ally of Israel is universal for both parties. Whoever was in office would’ve supported them. Obama certainly had some extremely disappointing foreign policy as well.
And that’s one of the main reasons why Biden is the candidate AND why most people who weren’t alive the last time the US had a president to the left of Reagan don’t trust the DNC much.
Don’t be tiresome, you know there’s no “we” in the Democratic party. They think they’re playing “good cop, bad cop” with the right, and they’re not going to realize it’s not an act until it’s too late.
A part of the problem with the ‘get through 24’ thought line is that Trump and the circus surrounding him has morphed into something that’s functionally it’s own entity with a R painted on it for convenience. That whole branch of the political tree has become some sort of monstrosity that the few remaining normal-ish conservatives fear to cross lest they become a target just like everyone else who’s an ‘other’.
One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don’t work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.
As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant “fudge factor” to make it look random. It’s not clear how there models really work and there’s no way to audit them.
Yeah cause Trump and the Republicans are totally against Israel aggression, genocide and are for a free Palestine.
Newsom has the following election to look forward to, he won’t get a look in at this one. It’s Biden or a Republican.
A shit choice for many, but only one option has a chance for the American experiment to continue. The other is global fascism, war and mutually assured destruction.
You’re correct that Trump is worse, worse for the country and for the current genocide.
Hillary showed us that a better, yet unelectable opponent falls to Trump. This election is so important, which is why it’s so unacceptable that Biden has thrown it away. He needed the young voters to turn out in record numbers, and now they all hate him. He’ll be handing it over to trump the same way Hillary did by continuing to run after the polls showed she loses to Trump but Bernie wins. She should have stepped down then.
The only possible recovery at this point is a different candidate. Newsome, Bernie, someone else with a strong anti genocide opinion needs to step up or were handing it to Trump.
Biden is poisoned now. He will not win another election.
We can’t afford for anyone left of Reagan to give in to defeat. Fight, like fuck, for whichever dem has the majority party support.
Any Dem infighting will be exploited by the captured corporate media and bad faith actors to destroy to the literal fabric of democracy in the next election cycle.
Vote Dem in 2024 then unfuck the system.
Other option is meh your way into a literal concentration camp at the hands of fascist sycophants.
Shit choice, but not a difficult one, to me at least.
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
Alright, first, this isn’t even close to the start. This is just another flare-up of the ongoing genocide that’s been apparent to anyone who pays attention to foreign affairs (ie not most Americans).
Yeah there certainly are a lot of people with strong opinions about Israel and Palestine that haven’t so much as taken the time to open the Wikipedia page about the conflict. TikTok said it’s cool to be pro Palestine so that’s good enough for quite a few people.
I’m certainly not supporting Israel’s actions currently but man how many people so quickly forgot what hamas did only a few weeks ago. It’s like it never happened.
I think you can be anti genocide and anti carpet bombing while also believing strongly that hamas doesn’t need to exist anymore and it’s members are terrorists that deserve the same treatment that Isis and Al qaeda received.
Don’t interpret me as saying I’m supporting what they are doing currently. I said explicitly I don’t. But after an attack like that I’d fully support military action in the area. You’re a fucking fool if you think any modern nation would ever accept that and just sit by without responding.
The problem is in what the response is. Is it a prolonged occupation going building by building? Worked out great for the US. Israel and the US should definitely set about the framework of taking out anyone claiming to be hamas leadership outside of the country. Anyone who had a hand in that attack.
Again the response isn’t indescriminate carpet bombing, but there must be a response.
Now you tell me what it should be. It’s super easy to sit in your tower and pretend like you have all the answers when we both know you’re likely full of shit.
I at least can admit what reality is here. As far as I’m concerned anything else is just people spewing bullshit when they have no idea what they’re talking about.
It should have been a ceasefire long ago. Netanyahu has set a criterion for victory (wiping out Hamas) that he knows cannot be met by his current means (attacking Gaza). He wants to be able to continue attacking Gaza with no end possible.
You’re correct but this is the first time it’s gone viral on tictoc. I’m not sure you’re understanding how unelectable Biden is now among the young voters that he needed to turn out in record numbers. He will not win another election now that he’s so poisoned.
One young guy I work with votes the other 12 dudes I work with don’t. Most young ladies I work with vote.
The one dude votes Dem. Most ladies I know vote Dem. In my echo chamber of life at my job nobody young is voting for Trump and nobody has turned on Biden because they weren’t with him in the first place they’re just not voting for Trump.
But that’s my echo chamber of my work place. Tiktok is an echo chamber too.
Because he actually doesn’t. He won last time idk if you know that or not? Trump needs the turnout more. Covid crushed his base, a lot of the Republican voters are old people and Christians which is only a falling demographic. Trump needs the youth more than Biden does. Most youth who are politically interested are so because of the Trump admin/roe v wade.
The youth that is moved is not towards Trump. You do not understand I think.
Polls are completely unreliable, especially this far out. They predicted trumps loss the first go around and we endured 4 years of that POS. They predicted red waves the last 2 election cycles and it never manifested.
Its a problem with the techniques they’re using to gather data I guess. Whether it’s the cold calling or what, I don’t know, but it clearly isn’t effective to get honest assessments anymore.
That being said it will never not blow my mind that it’s even slightly close. Last election millions of Americans sat through 4 years of trump and said yep that worked out great for me. Everyone I talked to who was in that camp had various incorrect reasons but you don’t need to be right, you just have to feel like you’re right.
I think the reality is that Biden is not and has never been a popular candidate. His age works against him. Kamala is equally unappealing and doesn’t help things either. The biggest problem right now is that Biden has come out very strongly pro Israel (which every single president has done including Trump) and he has not done enough to condemn the Israeli genocide. Millenials and Gen z are at the very least anti genocide and largely pro Palestine so that’s not helping his case, although they’re short sighted if they assume Trump would be the better answer here.
If Trump wins our democracy is over. ‘Oh you’re overreacting’. Yeah they said that to me before Trumps presidency and I was correct then as I am correct now.
We have to get through 24 and not have a deranged traitorous lunatic take the reigns of the country again. We can discuss the next steps in the post Trump era but we won’t get the option to discuss it if Trump somehow wins.
Vote like you value this country. Convince others to vote. Apathy is a vote for Trump. Choosing not to vote for Biden because you’re anti Israel is voting for Trump, who is also going to continue right along supporting Israel.
I reckon the techniques they use favor older people. For example, I can see a boomer answering a cold call no problem, but I couldn’t say the same for a younger generation.
This has been every election since 2012, and the discussion doesn’t happen.
No I don’t think that’s accurate. If McCain or Romney had won I never had a fear that our democracy would have eroded. I certainly wouldn’t have agreed with all of their policy choices but both men I think are old guard politicians and would have largely done the job with an undercurrent of honor that just doesn’t exist with trump. I never would have had any fear that if they lost the next election they wouldn’t peacefully turn over power.
With trump all of that has changed. The only reason his coup didn’t work is because most everyone involved was dense as fuck and couldn’t come up with a cohesive strategy to get it done. Give him another chance and 4 years to prepare and he will find success.
Biden is not the candidate I wanted, but he’s the candidate we’ve got, and in our broken political system that’s as good as it’s going to get. We can talk about 3rd parties and changing the system but none of that is happening before 24.
The polls are right about one thing. Trump definitely could win again. That should be very alarming to any rational American.
No, no, you don’t get it, if you let the fascists win this time, we’ll TOTALLY win next time. It’ll be Our Turn, or something.
“Everyone to my left is all the way to my right.”
I’m voting for Biden. He’s unpopular and the party’s messaging is dogshit, but I’m voting for him. You’re fooling yourself if you think our current messaging is going to bring in all the votes we need.
If the party expects us to believe that there will totally be discussion about what the party’s left wants this time, maybe there should have been some discussion the last three times they said that.
Basically my take. My view is that we need the old guard centrists to die off and we need to see more millenials and Gen z step into political positions.
It is of course a double edged sword. If you reformed the democratic party to actually adhere to current popular liberal progressive policies you would see a lot more shit getting done. But the millenials and Gen z Republicans are all cartoonishly evil and we are eventually going to have only maga qanon uneducated conspiratards making up the other political party.
The left has to win every election from here to the end of time. The loonies only need to win one more.
Party leadershit makes sure the left never gets past the primaries. The loonies will win before that changes.
There is also a total failure to understand that as much as the online community is solidly to the left of democrats, the policies don’t play as well to middle America. I believe in gun regulation, but if a candidate’s platform goes too hard on that they will lose MI and PA for sure. UBI? You better believe that’s a loser. Doesn’t matter how good the policy is, the messaging terrifies people.
I fucking love Bernie. That is a dude with integrity and heart. I wish he’d been elected. But he would’ve lost the general election (except maybe 2016 - I suspect only Hillary could’ve lost to Trump, but in hindsight it’s easy to say maybe we shouldn’t have taken the losing path). Candidates you love but can’t win aren’t going to help anyone. Biden has proven himself against Trump and no one else has. I’m damn sure happy he’s running.
Four decades of moving to the right to (ostensibly) please centrists’ notion of middle America, and your poll numbers are dropping against a literal fascist. You need the votes of the left that party leadership hates. We’re already funding genocide. How much farther do the right do you suppose we can move?
Who the hell is “you”? I’m not a Democrat if that’s what you think.
Fine. Four decades of moving to the right to (ostensibly) please centrists’ notion of middle America, and Democrats’ poll numbers are dropping against a literal fascist. Democrats need the votes of the left that party leadership hates. We’re already funding genocide. How much farther do the right do you suppose we can move?
Now can you try addressing this instead of trying to divert?
Ever.
Biden has been the most progressive President in probably 40 years and the most effective since probably Clinton. He wouldn’t be my first choice, but even if your silly little one-word retort is true that’s a big improvement on the past.
Oh yeah. Building Trump’s wall for him and funding genocide are super progressive.
Obama passed the ACA. That’s more progressive than everything Biden has passed put together. And no, that’s nothing to crow about either.
Obama also murdered people with drones and caved to Republicans when he had the power to pursue a more progressive agenda. He bailed out businesses instead of people. He did nothing about torturing prisoners of war. Don’t give me this Obama progressive bullshit. ACA was a republican plan. Obama was not by any stretch of the imagination a progressive. He was an okay President and a great orator, but his policies were conservative democrat.
And yet it was more progressive than anything Biden has passed. Don’t give me this Biden progressive bullshit.
Well you’re just wrong. Obama was not as progressive as Biden and believe me I was shocked by both. The proof is in the policies.
Oh and being an ally of Israel is universal for both parties. Whoever was in office would’ve supported them. Obama certainly had some extremely disappointing foreign policy as well.
2020: “Elect Biden and once he’s POTUS then we can push him left!” … They never pushed him left.
Precisely. It was a steaming crock of shit then, and has no credibility as a message now.
And that’s one of the main reasons why Biden is the candidate AND why most people who weren’t alive the last time the US had a president to the left of Reagan don’t trust the DNC much.
The game is rigged, and if you lose people die. Potentially heaps of them.
Then maybe we need to start acting like it and fix our shitty messaging.
Don’t be tiresome, you know there’s no “we” in the Democratic party. They think they’re playing “good cop, bad cop” with the right, and they’re not going to realize it’s not an act until it’s too late.
“We need to fix our messaging.”
“Don’t be tiresome.”
A part of the problem with the ‘get through 24’ thought line is that Trump and the circus surrounding him has morphed into something that’s functionally it’s own entity with a R painted on it for convenience. That whole branch of the political tree has become some sort of monstrosity that the few remaining normal-ish conservatives fear to cross lest they become a target just like everyone else who’s an ‘other’.
The rest of the problem with the “get through 24” message is that it will become “get through 28” the day after election day.
One problem is cost. It takes millions of dollars to do a truly scientific poll these days. Robocalls don’t work anymore due to cell phone penetration. The phonebook is dead, and along with it any credible listings of numbers that represent real people. Plus very low response rates and spam filters blocking much of polling calls even then. You pretty much have to go door-to-door in order to get a truly good poll, which is something few organizations can do.
As a result, most cheaply done polls use non-random samples and add a giant “fudge factor” to make it look random. It’s not clear how there models really work and there’s no way to audit them.
If it’s so dire, then fuck Biden for supporting a genocide. He’s throwing away an election before it happens. He’s unelectable now.
I think this is the scenario Newsom has been preparing for.
Yeah cause Trump and the Republicans are totally against Israel aggression, genocide and are for a free Palestine.
Newsom has the following election to look forward to, he won’t get a look in at this one. It’s Biden or a Republican.
A shit choice for many, but only one option has a chance for the American experiment to continue. The other is global fascism, war and mutually assured destruction.
I know what choice I’d make.
You’re correct that Trump is worse, worse for the country and for the current genocide.
Hillary showed us that a better, yet unelectable opponent falls to Trump. This election is so important, which is why it’s so unacceptable that Biden has thrown it away. He needed the young voters to turn out in record numbers, and now they all hate him. He’ll be handing it over to trump the same way Hillary did by continuing to run after the polls showed she loses to Trump but Bernie wins. She should have stepped down then.
The only possible recovery at this point is a different candidate. Newsome, Bernie, someone else with a strong anti genocide opinion needs to step up or were handing it to Trump.
Biden is poisoned now. He will not win another election.
We can’t afford for anyone left of Reagan to give in to defeat. Fight, like fuck, for whichever dem has the majority party support.
Any Dem infighting will be exploited by the captured corporate media and bad faith actors to destroy to the literal fabric of democracy in the next election cycle.
Vote Dem in 2024 then unfuck the system.
Other option is meh your way into a literal concentration camp at the hands of fascist sycophants.
Shit choice, but not a difficult one, to me at least.
You are correct on all of your points here.
The question is what do we do now that Biden is absolutely unelectable now?
Hillary showed us what happens when we stay on the poisoned horse. It does not cross the finish line no matter the effort.
Please. He’s behind by 2 or 3 points in the polls and the election isn’t until next November.
And falling.
“He’s unelectable now”
Yes, I’m sure that not supporting Israel would have been much better for his election chances.
Like, have you paid attention to popular opinion on Israel at all these past 20 years?
Do you know what the US electorate looks like, or just what you want it to look like?
Have you paid attention to popular opinion of Israel these past 3 months? Since, you know, they started a genocide?
Alright, first, this isn’t even close to the start. This is just another flare-up of the ongoing genocide that’s been apparent to anyone who pays attention to foreign affairs (ie not most Americans).
Second, US popular opinion is nowhere near turned against Israel yet. Even amongst Democrats it’s an even split.
Yeah there certainly are a lot of people with strong opinions about Israel and Palestine that haven’t so much as taken the time to open the Wikipedia page about the conflict. TikTok said it’s cool to be pro Palestine so that’s good enough for quite a few people.
I’m certainly not supporting Israel’s actions currently but man how many people so quickly forgot what hamas did only a few weeks ago. It’s like it never happened.
I think you can be anti genocide and anti carpet bombing while also believing strongly that hamas doesn’t need to exist anymore and it’s members are terrorists that deserve the same treatment that Isis and Al qaeda received.
Hamas leadership isn’t in Gaza. How is attacking civilians in Gaza going to wipe out Hamas?
Don’t interpret me as saying I’m supporting what they are doing currently. I said explicitly I don’t. But after an attack like that I’d fully support military action in the area. You’re a fucking fool if you think any modern nation would ever accept that and just sit by without responding.
The problem is in what the response is. Is it a prolonged occupation going building by building? Worked out great for the US. Israel and the US should definitely set about the framework of taking out anyone claiming to be hamas leadership outside of the country. Anyone who had a hand in that attack.
Again the response isn’t indescriminate carpet bombing, but there must be a response.
Now you tell me what it should be. It’s super easy to sit in your tower and pretend like you have all the answers when we both know you’re likely full of shit.
I at least can admit what reality is here. As far as I’m concerned anything else is just people spewing bullshit when they have no idea what they’re talking about.
It should have been a ceasefire long ago. Netanyahu has set a criterion for victory (wiping out Hamas) that he knows cannot be met by his current means (attacking Gaza). He wants to be able to continue attacking Gaza with no end possible.
And we’re funding that with no strings attached.
You’re correct but this is the first time it’s gone viral on tictoc. I’m not sure you’re understanding how unelectable Biden is now among the young voters that he needed to turn out in record numbers. He will not win another election now that he’s so poisoned.
You know, you’re not going to get very far in any conversation when you just keep saying “he’s unelectable now” over and over.
You’d think curiousaur would be too busy spending their lottery millions they get from their prognosticative powers to talk to us here on Lemmy.
All that power and they chose to lord it over us poor Lemmy users.
The young people said they didn’t want Hillary and look what happened. Keep sleep walking.
you’re in an echo chamber bro
I’m not at all. It’s only the young people and Muslim voters who have turned on him, but that’s enough.
One young guy I work with votes the other 12 dudes I work with don’t. Most young ladies I work with vote.
The one dude votes Dem. Most ladies I know vote Dem. In my echo chamber of life at my job nobody young is voting for Trump and nobody has turned on Biden because they weren’t with him in the first place they’re just not voting for Trump.
But that’s my echo chamber of my work place. Tiktok is an echo chamber too.
Right, he needed to turn out those young voters who don’t vote currently, and now that’s not going to happen.
By he you mean Biden right??
Because he actually doesn’t. He won last time idk if you know that or not? Trump needs the turnout more. Covid crushed his base, a lot of the Republican voters are old people and Christians which is only a falling demographic. Trump needs the youth more than Biden does. Most youth who are politically interested are so because of the Trump admin/roe v wade.
The youth that is moved is not towards Trump. You do not understand I think.